Champions League football secured for Arsenal but only on Goal difference! What are the odds?

A repeat of last season securing ECL football on last day?
A repeat of last season securing ECL football on last day?

It has been a while since we had a @Yorkshiregunner betting blog but now seemed a good time in the international break to assess the odds and look at the run in for Arsenal and their rivals. So what do the bookies think and more importantly what does Andy Wood think…………..

It’s been too long since I last wrote anything and this one maybe of interest to anyone that follows me on Twitter who also looks out for my regular Arsenal Bet of The Day. I post a bet on the day of each Arsenal game and since the start of the season anyone following the bets would be £210 up for a £10 stake. Firstly seeing as it’s getting to the business end of the season I thought I`d look at some odds regarding the big issues. Looking at the relegation battle and our old “friend” ‘Arry whose odds on QPR falling through the PL trapdoor are a best priced 2-9 this despite being below Reading in the table whom are 1-16 to go down. It’s quite tight down at the bottom and although Wigan have form at escaping relegation you can get 11-10 on them being a Championship side next season. Personally speaking I think one of Villa (2-1) or Southampton (a decent priced 8-1) to be claiming their parachute payments next season. I know Dave would quite fancy the Saints to go down so Arsenal can pick up Morgan Schneiderlin. Of course until they reach the often fabled 40 points no one can assume they are safe. Sunderland 7-2 right through to Fulham 150-1 are the odds between the clubs caught up in the fight to stay up.

Arry - Going down faster than Tulisa
Arry – Going down faster than Tulisa

Next let’s look at the best odds for clubs finishing in the Top Four. Man Utd have won the title so that offers no value at 1-250 , meaning you would win a whole £1 if you staked £250 on the Old Trafford outfit adding to their Title Wins. So taking Man United out of the equation where do we stand?

Position Team

Played

GoalDifference

Points

1 Man United

29

38

74

2 Man City

29

25

59

3 Chelsea

29

28

55

4 Tottenham

30

14

54

5 Arsenal

29

23

50

6 Everton

29

11

48

The odds on Man City gaining a Top four finish are 1-200 which again offers little value. Even Chelski at 1-6 is not exactly going to make anyone rich. It is hard to argue with the experts given that City are already 9 points clear of 5th place and Chelsea are 5 points. It is fair to assume therefore that the bookies see there only being one Champions league spot up for grabs. Currently in pole position are Tottenham, who since beating Arsenal however have gone on their customary end of season blow-up having lost heavily to Inter Milan, losing at Liverpool and being beat by Fulham at home. Tottenham are best priced even money to gain a top four finish. They have a tough run games over the next month whilst Arsenal on paper at least look to have the easier run in, with the exception of hosting the Champions elect at the Emirates. At present the experts have Spurs just slightly favoured over Arsenal but it is marginal. Surprisingly, although they only lie 2 points behind Arsenal, and have just beaten Manchester City, the bookies completely discounted Everton. You can get between 9 and 12 to 1 for the Toffees to break into the top 4. Interestingly Everton at home if Arsenal’s game in hand over their North London rivals. A win for the Gunners over Moyes’s boys could see Arsenal finish Merseyside hopes and really begin breathing down Tottenham’s necks.

Tottenham`s Wheels falling off again?
Tottenham`s Wheels falling off again?

So if the bookies are correct and it is a straight 2 team North London race let’s have a look at the 2 sets of fixtures and maybe try to predict the results to see if those Bookies have gotten it right or wrong..

 

Spuds

Swansea Away – Difficult trip, Swansea difficult place to go BUT form since Winning Cup has gone off the boil, then again they won’t want to be losing two home games on the spin.

Let’s say 1-1 Draw             1pt

Everton Home- Everton could if results go their way (Beat Stoke at home & if Spuds lose to Swansea) actually draw level on 54 points if they beat Spuds. I can see another tight game here seeing as it’s sandwiched between Spuds QF ties against FC Basel.

Another draw 2-2          1pt

Chelski Away- The run of games does not get any easier for Tottenham and I can’t see anything other than a Chelski victory here.

Chelski win 3-1        0 points

Man City Home- Just when Tottenham fans think it can’t get any worse The reigning PL champions come rolling into town. The game will be another tight affair.

Draw- 2-2                  1point

Wigan Away – is the start of a run of fixtures against clubs that whilst look easy on paper are actually teams fighting for their very survival. Wigan usually find form at this time of the season and will have enough to dent the Spuds CL ambitions here.

Wigan to win 2-1       0 points

Southampton Home- Although Saints are another team fighting for their lives I see Tottenham having too much for them on this occasion

Spuds win 3-0         3 points

Stoke Away- next up is a trip to the always welcoming Stoke City and their marvellous Simian Supporters whom I am sure will welcome the visit of Gareth Bale like a long lost brother. Sadly Stoke have been pretty dire since turn of the year and I can’t see anything other than a Spud Win here

Spuds win 2-0       3 Points

Sunderland Home- Depending on how the battle at the bottom goes this could either be a gimme or a real battle. Either way I can’t see past Tottenham

Spuds win 2-1                   3 points

This run of predicted results would give Tottenham 66 points and a GD of +17

Now let’s focus the Crystal Ball on Arsenals run in-

Reading Home-

Even the most optimistic Royals fan would struggle to see anything other than a Home Win here.

Arsenal WIN 4-1      3 points

WBA away-

A tricky fixture but not one Arsenal are beyond winning, however I see WBA being more of a handful than last season’s final fixture and we can’t rely on another Keeper throwing goals in here. Lukaku seems to be hitting some form too.

2-2 DRAW         1 point

Norwich Home

I would hope Arsenal learned their lessons of treating clubs like Norwich lightly and put in a good performance here against a side that should be all but safe.

Arsenal WIN

2-0         3 Points

Everton Home

Tricky match here and one that will be a very tight affair, particularly if Everton are still in the  hunt for 4th themselves.

DRAW- 1-1      1 point

Fulham away-

Another potentially difficult London Derby for Arsenal against a team whom have just beat Tottenham away. A lot will depend on keeping Berbatov quiet.

Draw 1-1           1 point

Man Utd- Home

This could be a very bad day as United could in theory wrap up the title here. The sight of Van Penis celebrating this could make for a very ugly atmosphere, you just know deep down he will open the scoring too. Taking off the Arsenal tinted glasses and I can’t see past a Man United Win

Utd win 3-1      0 points

QPR –Away

By the time Arsenal roll into Loftus Road QPR could be dead and buried. I can’t see past an Arsenal win here to get CL fight back on track

Arsenal win 2-0      3 points

Wigan Home-

As stated previously Wigan usually come into form this time of year, a hard earned nervy draw here I fear.

Draw 2-2               1 Point

Newcastle Away

Newcastle away from home in their last fixture of the season brings parallels with having to go to another team with Barcode shirts last year. The game will be open with plenty of goals.

Arsenal win 3-2     3 points

This would give Arsenal a total of 66 points and a GD of +29

This would see Arsenal taking the CL spot from Tottenham by a greater GD.

Nervy times are ahead as I think anyone will see and no wonder the bookies can’t really split the two clubs.

 

Open Top Parade for finishing Fourth again....?
Open Top Parade for finishing Fourth again….?

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Thanks to Dave once again for allowing me back on his site, please feel free to say hello on twitter and discuss any and all of the above.

Cheers, @yorkshiregunner

Thanks again to my pessimistic Yorkshire pal. I personally hope we can beat Wigan and home but I was there to witness them beat us in the last but one game that made the final day so nerve wracking last season. Whatever happens there will be a few twist and turns between now and the final day but I can confirm on behalf of Any and myself that 4th place and NOWT else is failure. A failure however to build upon….

Like what you read? Agree/disagree? Leave a comment below or follow me or comment on this blog on Twitter – http://twitter.com/goonerdave66

 

 

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10 comments

  1. Presumably English not the first language for g. clarke! Otherwise get mummy to turn off the PC and leave comments to grown ups. I’m continually amazed that these challenged cretins post without being able to master kindergarden level English. Why demonstrate their stupidity. Oh… 15 seconds of fame!!

  2. Excellent Andy, I mat have to have to join your ‘bet of the day’ next season, it’s very enterprising.
    I hope we do finish above Spurs, we can , we all know that but I’m not gonna count our chickens just yet.
    Lets see how we play this Saturday after these tedious Internationals.

  3. Everton fan here and I can see us getting the 18 points necessary to match the 66 points you predict however our goal difference is shocking.

    One team you have ignored however is Liverpool, whilst they only have an outside chance their run in is probably the easiest (on paper). Could be an interesting 5 horse race (as I am still not convinced on Chelsea just yet). One of the closest end of seasons for a while with so many teams striving for CL football. Good luck all, may the best team (or one player if Spurs) win.

    1. Hi Dan. Andy the guest blogger is pessimistic in his predictions and I think we will finish with over 70. My wife is a Toffee and I hope you hold of the Reds

      1. I hope we do too. I am a glass half full man myself but still couldn’t see past two draws at arse and spurs and defeat at anfield and the bridge. There could still be some shocks along the way.

  4. I’m a tad more optimistic than you, Andy & looked at our run in when we had 10 games remaining, predicting we’d lose one & draw 2, leaving us on 70 points. One of those draws was v Swansea, so we are already ahead of ‘schedule’ by two points. Also had the ManU game down as a loss, but I’m now hoping they will win the title before the visit us &, hopefully, take the foot off the gas a little.
    I’ve been confident of a top four finish for some time now. Our current squad may not know how to win titles or trophies, but do know what it takes for that final push to secure top four. Sp*rs’, and Chel$ki’s, Europa Cup exploits could also benefit us in the run in.
    There may not be a title chase on for us, yet again, but securing Champions League football for next season keeps the excitement going for the duration of this campaign with a few twists & turns still to come. For me, missing out would be like how fans of relegated teams must feel. I’ll put my neck on the line & say again; we will finish top four. And have our St Totteringham’s Day.
    Up The Arsenal
    Steve.

  5. as we took 3pts yesterday at swansea, i hope all the rest of your predictions are correct,
    good work ar5ena1 fan

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