‘The Gooner Betting Guide’ to Euro 2012 from ‘1nildown2oneup’

A Sunday morning blog with a difference today from my good friend and regular guest contributor, Andy Wood @yorkshiregunner . A welcome distraction from largely speculative transfer gossip into an entirely different arena of speculation! I have asked Andy to cast is eye over the betting opportunities for those who like a punt on the footie or those who have thought about it but were not so sure. Either way this makes for a cracking read and can you feed back to Andy of myself if you would like this to become a regular feature on’1nildown2oneup’ next season. Thanks  Dave (@goonerdave66)

With the Arsenal Season over most fans will now be awaiting the Euro2012 ‘Football Extravaganza’ to start. Although Arsenal aren’t involved we have a number of players who will be. To add a bit of spice as a neutral a lot of people will have a flutter on the tournament or games they watch. Anyone that follows me on Twitter will know I post an Arsenal Bet before every Game, (over the season anyone placing all the bets would have ended up around £20-£30 up).I also tipped RVP for Player of the Season last August at 20-1. I`d like to look at a few markets, that may be of interest to Gooners who like to chance their arm. Most prices come from Oddschecker.com and prices can fluctuate so don’t blame me if the price has changed!!!

Firstly let`s look at Arsenal Specific Bets-

Top Arsenal Goal scorer at Euro 2012- Best Prices

RVP- 8/13 Poor odds in my opinion. Consider his return in the last WC having reached the final.

Podolski – 10/3. The best bet in this Market. Has very good record for Germany and at over 3/1 could be a fairly decent return.

  Best bet from the Gooner brigade on show?

Bendtner – 10/1 – Considering the Danes are in the Group of Death I would steer clear of the self proclaimed Greatest Player in the World on this occasion.

Arshavin – 12-1- One last hurrah for the Chubby Russian? He plays in his favoured position for Russia and set Euro 2008 alight albeit after a suspension and a poor final game.

Theo-12-1 – Burst onto the International Scene with a stunning Hat-trick…hasn`t scored since. Let face it we don’t know what to expect from one week to the next. He could be either the Player of the Tournament or its worst.

The Ox- 33-1- This kid is a genuine talent and as he loves to shoot from range could bag a couple of goals. Now ‘Jacamo’ Lampard is out he may get a start too….

  Too early or another Rooney 04?

TR7- 40-1- Superb Season from Little Mozart, is his National Teams Conductor back him at these odds and you may waltz off into the sunset with a few quid..

The BFG- 200-1- Considering his size he doesn’t get many goals. One to avoid I feel.

Koscielny – 250-1  He got a few goals for us last season but will he start for France? You pay your money and you take the risk.

For there to be NO Arsenal Goal scorer at Euro2012 – 20-1.  Interesting bet but I would expect Podolski & RVP to score at least 1 a piece so odds don’t outweigh the risk in this case.

 

Now let’s take a look at the overall Top Goal scorer Market –

RVP 11-1- Again not a cracking bet in my opinion. RVP doesn’t score at the rate he does for The Arsenal…if you must back a Dutch Player try Huntelaar at 18-1.

Podolski 28-1 This is a great bet at these odds; consider backing E/W (Each way should pay a lower amount  if in the top 4 scorers) as he should give his backers a very long run.

Lewandowski – 25-1 Solid bet as Poles are in a weak “ish” group and as hosts may get the odd decision shall we say? Scores for fun for Dortmund…warning though Poland aren’t at Dortmund’s level.

 No Villa so Llorente a good bet

Llorente – 16-1 On Fire Domestically, with David Villa injured and Torres form all over the place, a sneaky bet on him would be prudent. Although considering Spain’s formation maybe Pedro at 80-1 would be an even better proposition

Ribery at 80-1 has to be worth an each way tickle.

Ronaldo at 14-1 and Klose at 18-1 also have some appeal.

English Players just don’t offer much value at all. When betting one must do it with your head, England are very dour and struggle to overwhelm even the poorest sides. Goals will be scarce. I`d avoid at all costs. Although I did back Rooney at 2004 at 66-1 and he was flying until he broke his foot…. he misses England’s first two games this time and offers no value even at 40-1.

Each way bets on top scorer should pay out a quarter the odds if your selection finishes 2/3/4th in scoring charts

Player of the Tournament-

Any player could win this, Xavi of Spain; Theodoros Zagorakis of Greece, Zidane of France, and Sammer of Germany have won since Euro 96. Which player is the stand-out European Player? Ronaldo (not the fat one…the pretty boy one) but can Portugal qualify from The Group of Death?  At 20-1 he might be worth backing as on his day he can destroy anyone and if Portugal do manage to get out of the group he will have played well.

Other notables are the Spanish pair of Xavi & Iniesta both at 16-1 both supreme players and full of assists, barring a disaster Spain will go a long way and both will feature if fit.

Germans to back? Schwienstieger (20-1) and Ozil (14-1) offer the same reasons as the Spanish Pair.

Ribery at 40-1 is compelling as he is in a rich vein of form at the right time.

Sneijder is 25-1 but hasn’t reached the levels of a couple of years ago and fitness is a worry. Fancy RVP to continue to sweep the personal awards up? 18-1 is the price.

If you HAVE to back an Englishman then go for Joe Hart at 100-1 he will be busy and need to have a wonderful month if England are to progress.

EDITORS ADDITION – Tomas Rosicky is 250-1 Get on! Ha Ha 

Outright Winner-

I`ve said since last World Cup that Germany would win Euro2012 and I can’t change horses now. For those wanting to back them you should have gotten up earlier and placed your towel of fivers over their sun beds, as their price now is 14/5 it will only go down the ‘Klose’ they get to the Final…

 or perhaps 

Decent outside bet? France at 12-1. They have an array of talent going forward one of Worlds best Keepers and on a great run of form. Of course Spain are the outright favourites at circa 13-5 whilst many after last night might fancy an fiver on the Dutch at about 6-1. Incidentally each way btets costing you double will get you a pay out if your selection are runners up. If you are feeling totally bonkers and patriotic England are currently about 16-1 to win the tournament which leads me onto….

England Bets:-

Personally I doubt England will qualify from the Group and if we need a result in the final group game v the co-hosts then there`s nothing to come from the Ref. Some stand-out England Specials are-

First Player to be sent off for England- Phil Jones @ 50-1 is great value the way he runs about like a big galoot although Parker @ 22-1 is a shrewd choice as European Refs won’t take kindly to his often reckless challenges.

The Ox to outscore Theo is 7-2 and for him to play more minutes than Theo is 7-1

A repeat of 2004 where England were leading France in the 89th Min and to lose 1-2 is 500-1… (It couldn’t happen again could it?)

Other Decent bets-

I think there will be a lot of drawn games, if you think in the entire Tournament there will be 9 or more then Evens is the price.

England`s Group Games to finish as 3 draws pays 40-1 in an accumulator.

England to be out in the Group Stage is 17/10.

For the Irish to qualify from their group is 4-1. Well within Irelands capabilities to secure draws against Spain & Italy (as they don’t give any side time on the ball) and beat Croatia.

Denmark to concede most goals are 5-1 – very tough group for the Danes and Thomas Sorenson has pulled out of their squad too with injury.

 

Special Bets-

Paddy Power have some interesting combo bets, giving prices for the tournament winners and top scorer combined. Check it out yourslef but here are a few interesting ones:

Holland to win and RVP top scorer 25-1 whereas Holland to win and Huntelaar is 40-1

Spain to win and Llorente is 25-1 whereas Spain to win with Pedro top scoring charts is 33-1

Germany and Gomez is the lowest odds at 14-1 or France and Benzema 33-1

Or perhaps combine countries as such:

Wow how about Holland to win outright but Llorente to be the top scorer – 200 -1 or Germany to win but Benzema to top charts is 80 -1

Or many of you follow Dortmund so how about Germany to win but Lewandowski to top score which is a tempting 100-1

Let’s finish with a totally heart ruling head example and go for England to win Euro 2012 and Theo to top score – 225-1 (Worth a £1?)

To combine football, politics and the economy for our friends in Portugal, Greece and Ireland

Any Country to win Euro2012 and announce a withdrawal from the Euro in the same year is 4-1.

For the Euro not to exist as a currency by full time in the Final 50-1.

Word of Advice if you are opening an online account shop around lots of firms have special opening offers on. All are easily found online. Remember to bet sensibly (i.e. DONT Bet on ENGLAND) and let’s hope all Arsenal Players come back injury free and fresh for the new season.

Thanks once more to Dave for giving me a platform, I realise Betting isn’t everyone’s cup of tea and my next blog (if invited back) will be about The Arsenal. Look me up on Twitter (@yorkshiregunner) and let me know your thoughts.

Until the next time…. Bonnet da Douche.

Thanks again the one and only @yorkshiregunner Andy Wood!

 

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6 comments

  1. Good article mate. Interesting looking at the odds and how they differ from your own personal opinions.

    Best bet that I can see is Parker to be sent off. The friendly the other night could have seen him off.

    What are the odds on the number of Arsenal injuries?

  2. Loved the article. Really well thought out and lots of great ideas and tips. You are a natural. Keep up the good work. Alvin

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